Bitcoin continues to trade with little conviction as broader market uncertainty weighs on risk assets. 

According to QCP Capital’s latest market report, geopolitical tensions are mounting as US President Donald Trump prepares to announce a sweeping set of tariffs later today. The move, expected to impact major economies including Japan, China, Canada, and the European Union, has left global markets on edge.

Despite a moment of clarity yesterday, QCP Capital analysts notes that overall visibility remains low. The firm draws parallels between the current uncertainty and Trump’s signature deal-making tactics, stating that “last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in ‘The Art of the Deal.’” 

However, instead of yielding to US pressure, global players appear to be reinforcing regional cooperation. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan, and South Korea convened to explore deeper trade ties, highlighting a potential shift in the global economic landscape.‍

Markets React as Recession Fears Grow

Equity markets have already been rattled, with major indices experiencing a 4-5% drawdown over the past week. analysts warns that a broad and aggressive tariff regime could exacerbate recession concerns, leading to a deeper selloff in risk assets. 

The market’s fear is further reflected in volatility indices, with the VIX hovering at an elevated 22. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the U.S. has plunged to 12-year lows, reinforcing concerns that the economy may struggle to absorb further shocks.

The Federal Reserve remains caught between competing economic forces. Markets currently price in 2.5 rate cuts in 2025, but the Fed may be forced into a different stance. 

With consumer confidence and soft economic data signaling a potential slowdown in GDP growth for Q2, rate cuts may seem appropriate. However, the introduction of new tariffs could fuel inflationary pressures, which could push the Fed toward rate hikes instead. For now, the central bank appears inclined to wait and assess further economic developments.‍

Crypto Market Faces Continued Weakness

Bitcoin is struggling to gain momentum amid the broader macroeconomic uncertainty. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC is currently priced at $84,854.25 after recording a 1.30% decline in the last 24 hours. On a weekly basis, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains down 3.27%. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index indicates that market sentiment is still in the fear zone, reflecting cautious investor behavior.

The crypto market as a whole is showing signs of exhaustion, with multiple altcoins down 90% year-to-date. Some coins have even shed over 30% in just the past week. 

Given the absence of a compelling macro catalyst, analysts remains skeptical of a meaningful rebound in the near term. However, the firm does highlight some bullish activity, as its desk saw investors taking topside exposure at $85,000-$90,000 strike levels while hedging downside risk at $75,000.‍

Key Economic Events

Beyond today’s anticipated tariff announcement, several macroeconomic events could drive further market volatility this week:

• April 2 (Tuesday): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
• April 3 (Thursday): ISM Services PMI
• April 4 (Friday): Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech