Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) delivered robust performances in the fourth quarter of 2024, with BTC surging 48% and ETH climbing 30%, even as market activity revealed mixed signals heading into the new year. While Bitcoin consolidates near the bottom of its one-month range, observers remain cautious about what lies ahead in early 2025.

The post-quarter options market witnessed a typical selloff in implied volatility (vols), with levels dropping by 2-3 points since the record-breaking expiry on Friday. QCP Capital noted this pattern aligns with previous quarter-end expiries.

 Despite the subdued near-term activity, market participants remain attentive to signals from prominent players like Michael Saylor. The MicroStrategy founder recently shared his Bitcoin purchase tracker, sparking speculation about potential large-scale BTC acquisitions that could support prices further.

However, optimism is tempered by skepticism regarding January’s market trajectory. Historically, January's average returns for Bitcoin stand at 3.3%, comparable to December's 4.8%. Analysts suggest spot prices are likely to remain range-bound before gaining momentum in February.

Options trading flows reflect this sentiment, with short-term vols drifting lower and risk-reversal trades showing a preference for call options maturing in March. Notably, significant activity is anticipated around March contracts, with an open interest of approximately 120,000 to 130,000 BTC.

In contrast to this cautious outlook, spot market data paints a more subdued picture. On December 30, data from SoSo Value revealed that Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable outflows. 

The Bitcoin spot ETF reported net outflows of $426 million, marking the second consecutive day of withdrawals. Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) also faced daily net outflows of $135 million, contributing to its historical net outflow total of $21.487 billion.

Bitcoin’s price reflected this bearish undertone, falling 1.18% in the last 24 hours to $92,523.81, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency's market cap declined by 1.65% to $1.83 trillion. Despite these fluctuations, BTC and ETH's Q4 performance underscores the resilience of major cryptocurrencies amid volatile conditions.

As 2024 comes to a close, the market remains in a delicate balance. While major players may provide short-term catalysts, broader sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach as investors prepare for what February might bring.