Bitcoin concluded November on a high note, registering a record-breaking monthly close at $96,506. According to a report from Bitfinex Alpha, the flagship cryptocurrency gained 37.3% in November, marking its second-best month of 2024. Despite experiencing an 8.64% intra-week decline to $90,911 during the month, Bitcoin swiftly rebounded, demonstrating robust market momentum.

Historically, December has been a volatile month for Bitcoin. However, in halving years, it has delivered strong average returns of 38.86%, fueling optimism for further gains. Bitfinex Alpha notes that the current bull market dynamics position Bitcoin to potentially surpass the psychological $100,000 mark.

Short-term volatility remains a possibility, with recent ETF outflows of $135.1 million and continued profit-taking by Long-Term Holders (LTHs). LTHs have distributed 508,990 BTC since September, adding selling pressure to the market. While this figure remains below the 934,000 BTC distributed before March 2024, sustained demand from ETFs and marginal buyers is critical to offset the supply.

Meanwhile, Short-Term Holder (STH) supply is nearing its cycle high of 3,282,000 BTC. Bitfinex Alpha notes that this shift often signals the final phase of a bull market, reflecting increased retail participation and reliance on incoming demand to absorb LTH profit-taking.‍

Broader Economic Landscape

The US economy showed resilience in late 2024, supported by strong consumer spending, a steady labor market, and moderated inflation expectations. In October, consumer spending rose 0.4%, income increased by 0.6%, and core PCE inflation climbed to 2.8% year-over-year. Business investment provided mixed signals, but GDP growth remained steady at 2.8% in Q3, driven by strong wages and corporate profits.

The Bitfinex Alpha report also highlighted key global developments in the cryptocurrency sector. In Hong Kong, the Monetary Authority launched the Digital Bond Grant Scheme, providing subsidies to promote tokenized bonds and strengthening its position as a virtual asset hub. Celsius Network advanced its bankruptcy proceedings with a second $127 million payout to creditors, even as its former CEO faces ongoing legal challenges. In Russia, a new law recognizing digital currencies as property and exempting crypto mining from VAT aims to provide regulatory clarity while encouraging compliance.

With Bitcoin entering December, the market faces a balancing act of absorbing LTH profit-taking and driving demand through increasing retail participation and institutional inflows.