Bitcoin's price surged to a new high of $108,028.60 earlier today, marking another milestone in its impressive year-to-date rally of 137%, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Starting the day at $106,500, the cryptocurrency demonstrated its characteristic volatility, with its price later retreating by 2.71% to $103,627.73.‍

Mixed Signals in Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains divided. According to QCP Capital, while Bitcoin’s spot price continues to climb, the options market displays a preference for put options over calls. This trend may reflect caution among investors, indicating a focus on hedging rather than aggressively chasing the rally. Despite this, analysts note that bearish arguments for Bitcoin's spot price are increasingly scarce.

Adding to the optimism, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) recently adopted fair value accounting for Bitcoin and other digital assets. This move allows companies to reflect fair value gains in their net income, potentially spurring corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Analysts suggest this change could create a positive feedback loop, encouraging institutional demand for Bitcoin.‍

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Drive Institutional Interest

One of the most significant developments of the year has been the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. CCData reports that these ETFs have attracted over 500,000 BTC in net flows, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the pack, amassing over $50 billion in assets within 228 days. This performance makes IBIT the fastest-growing ETF in history, bolstered by an average weekly inflow of nearly 2,000 BTC since the U.S. elections.

Looking ahead, analysts predict accelerated inflows as adoption grows in 2025. VanEck projects Bitcoin's price could reach $180,000 in Q1 2025, buoyed by sustained bullish sentiment and growing institutional participation.‍

Cycle Analysis: Deviations and Expectations

Structurally, the current Bitcoin market cycle has deviated from historical norms, with an all-time high recorded before the next halving event—a first in Bitcoin’s history. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s cycle tops historically occur between 371 and 546 days post-halving, with each cycle displaying longer durations due to market cap growth and adoption acceleration. 

CCData suggests Bitcoin’s price could peak at the start of Q2 2025, with an alternate projection of a price peak in November 2025, reflecting patterns seen in the 2021 market cycle.