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In the third quarter of 2024, prediction markets experienced remarkable growth, primarily fueled by wagering on the forthcoming United States presidential election, which may significantly influence cryptocurrency regulations.

Betting activity surged over 565.4% in Q3, climbing to $3.1 billion across the three largest prediction markets, a notable increase from $463.3 million in the second quarter of 2024.

The substantial rise in betting volume within prediction markets can largely be linked to escalating wagers concerning the US election results.

An Oct. 14 report from CoinGecko noted: “Prediction markets gained traction in Q3 2024, growing by 565.4% as analysts placed bets on the impending US elections.”

Billionaire Elon Musk suggested that decentralized prediction markets might offer more precise predictions for the 2024 US election compared to conventional polling methods. Platforms like Polymarket allow users to bet with stablecoins, such as USD Coin, on the outcomes of specific events. 

As of September 2024, Polymarket stands as the largest decentralized platform, commanding an impressive market share of over 99%.

According to a report by CoinGecko, more than 46% of Polymarket's year-to-date (YTD) trading volume has been influenced by polling on the US presidential elections.

The report noted: "Since the beginning of 2024, approximately $1.7 billion in bets have been placed on the ‘US Presidential Election Winner,’ representing about 46% of Polymarket’s total volume for the year.”

During the third quarter of 2024, betting volume on Polymarket surged by 713%, while the number of transactions skyrocketed by 848%.

Currently, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by eight points on Polymarket.

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