Cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket has opened betting on whether Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will conduct an official audit of the U.S. gold reserves at Fort Knox.

Two Fort Knox-related prediction markets launched on Feb. 17, with one market wagering on whether the audit will happen by May 2025, and the other focusing on potential outcomes of such an audit.

At the time of writing, Polymarket’s betting odds stood at 56%, reflecting uncertainty over whether the push for transparency will lead to the first official audit of the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves since 1974.

While Polymarket does not allow U.S. residents to participate, it has seen surging activity in political betting markets, particularly during the U.S. presidential election cycle, with many of its markets proving accurate.

Trump Remains Silent on Audit as Calls for Transparency Grow

Momentum behind the Fort Knox audit gained traction after Kentucky Senator Rand Paul initiated calls for it on February 16. The following day, conservative commentator Glenn Beck urged President Donald Trump to take action, saying an audit would help “restore full faith and credit” in the U.S. government.

“I am asking for the opportunity to bring a camera crew under strict security measures to document and verify the presence of America’s gold reserves,” Beck wrote in a letter shared on X. He framed the audit as a defining moment for Trump’s legacy, emphasizing his administration’s stance on transparency and America-first policies.

Despite Elon Musk backing the initiative, Trump has not yet commented on the matter.

READ MORE: Trump presidential election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets $2M

Before his first term as president, Trump made cryptic remarks in 2015 suggesting the U.S.—the world's largest holder of gold—may not actually possess all the gold it claims.

“We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold,” Trump said in a March 2015 interview with WMUR television.

Speculation Over Impact of an Audit Grows

It remains unclear whether the U.S. government will act on the audit requests, but speculation is mounting over potential implications if discrepancies are found.

Some analysts downplayed the impact, noting that Fort Knox’s 4,600 tons of gold—worth approximately $430 billion—represents only a fraction of global markets.

“Probably not much, actually. It’s such a small amount even as stated,” macroeconomist Lyn Alden wrote on X.

However, Bitcoin advocates argue that a full Fort Knox audit could shake global confidence in the U.S. dollar, potentially triggering a Bitcoin rally. Others speculate that the public might never learn the true results of such an audit, reinforcing arguments for a state-backed Bitcoin reserve.

Gold Prices Surge Amid Audit Speculation

While uncertainty over an audit remains, gold prices have continued climbing, with spot gold reaching a record high above $2,940 last week. The surge in prices has led Goldman Sachs to raise its year-end gold target to $3,100, reiterating its “Go for gold” strategy as a hedge against global trade tensions.

As calls for a Fort Knox audit grow, markets will be watching closely to see if Trump breaks his silence and whether the U.S. government moves forward with a historic review of its gold reserves.

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