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Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest price since late November, quashing hopes of a seasonal “Santa Claus rally” that has historically brought gains during bull market cycles. The cryptocurrency dropped to $92,442 on Dec. 23, marking a 14.5% correction from its Dec. 17 all-time high of just over $108,000.

Despite a brief recovery to $95,000, Bitcoin slid back to $94,000 on Dec. 24 and remains down more than 11% for the week. Traditionally, crypto markets have rallied during the holiday period, with a price surge often observed in the last days of December through early January. However, Bitcoin’s recent downturn has cast doubt on such a rally this year.

Historical data offers mixed signals. Crypto trader 'Mister Crypto' highlighted that Bitcoin saw substantial gains between Christmas and New Year in 2016 and 2020—years preceding market cycle peaks. A CoinGecko study published on Dec. 13 noted that from 2014 to 2023, crypto markets experienced a Santa Claus rally 80% of the time, with market capitalization increasing by 0.7% to 11.8% in the post-Christmas week.

However, there was no Santa Claus rally in 2021, the last cycle peak, when Bitcoin had fallen 26% from its $69,000 high by Christmas. Analysts suggest that 2025, not 2023, is likely to be the peak year for the current market cycle, following Bitcoin’s historical four-year pattern.

Adding to market tension, around $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether options contracts are set to expire on Dec. 27, potentially fueling volatility in the coming days.

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